Real Estate Investors: Canada’s Job Market Is Changing Fast As Vacancies Fall Sharply!

Monday, March 20, 2023   /   by Matthew Daniel Tamburello

Real Estate Investors: Canada’s Job Market Is Changing Fast As Vacancies Fall Sharply!

Courtesy of:
Matthew Daniel Tamburello
Team Leader & Broker

Considering a new job? Might want to start applying, because the balance might shift back to employers soon. Statistics Canada quarterly data shows a substantial decline in both vacant job listings and the job vacancy rate in Q4 2022. Despite the quick move, diving into the monthly numbers shows a higher-level may downplay just how rapidly Canada’s vacant jobs are vaporizing.

Canadian Job Vacancies Reveal A Sharp Quarterly Decline

Canada’s job vacancies are coming down fast from the peak reached less than a year before. Vacant roles fell 8.2% (-78,600 jobs) to 885,900 roles in the fourth quarter of 2022. This brings the vacancy rate down 0.5 points to 4.9%—a sharp decline for just a few months. Both the number of vacant roles and the rate are the lowest since Q2 2021.

It’s A Different Market From Peak, But Vacancies Are Elevated

Canada’s fast-changing job market just logged a second consecutive quarterly decline. Vacant roles have dropped 17.1% (-176,100), while the rate has fallen 1.1 points since both peaked in Q2 2022. Both numbers remain higher than pre-pandemic numbers, but the market is changing rapidly with the hiring surge.  

Monthly Data Shows Job Vacancies Are Disappearing Fast

The quarterly data downplays just how fast Canada’s job vacancies are disappearing. The fourth quarter started with 902,600 vacant roles in October, but fell to 754,300 by December. Similarly, the vacancy rate went from 5.0% in October to 4.2% by the end of the quarter in December. To put it bluntly, over two-thirds of the drop for both the number of vacant roles and the rate, occurred within the last quarter.

Quarterly data attributes the falling vacancy rate to payroll, but that trend isn’t so clear in the monthly data. In the final quarter of 2022, payrolls declined by 20,400 employees from October to December.

Canadian Job Vacancy Rate

Canada’s job market still has significant slack, according to the latest data. However, the quarterly focus might downplay just how fast things have tightened recently. Just one more quarter like the one we just saw, and Q2 starts around the same level the country was pre-pandemic.

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Matthew Daniel Tamburello
Team Leader & Broker
Right at Home Realty, Brokerage

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